Will Vinnie Pasquantino lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

This market is severely illiquid with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 4706% implied yield on the Yes side is an extreme outlier driven by the minimal stake size rather than genuine market conviction, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests high volatility risk near expiration. Pasquantino would need a career-defining season to lead MLB in runs (typically 120+ runs required), making the 4% probability reasonable despite the distorted yield metrics.

Resolution rules

If Vinnie Pasquantino leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

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