Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

6¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $234·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-YALV

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $234 open interest, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 4¢ spread. The extreme 3071.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either significant mispricing or that traders view Alvarez's chances as genuinely remote, though his status as a perennial MVP candidate makes leading MLB in runs a plausible outcome. With 186 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an actively traded market.

Resolution rules

If Yordan Alvarez leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3072.1%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 512%

CRI 16

Overround 1.9%

LAS 0.67

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3072.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	512%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.67	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:49:09 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-YALV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →