Will Yandy Diaz lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $2·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-YDIA

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 4700% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of minimal liquidity rather than genuine opportunity—such yields typically appear when tiny positions create wide spreads on low-probability outcomes. With 186 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, there's meaningful time decay risk, though the neutral regime suggests no immediate catalysts are distorting pricing.

Resolution rules

If Yandy Diaz leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

LAS 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:50:46 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-YDIA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →