Will Billie Eilish go on Call Her Daddy?

23¢

Bid/Ask 7/17¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $11·Closes Jan 1, 2027·257d remaining

KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-BIL

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $11 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 23¢ price potentially unreliable. The 1886% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag typical of thin markets where small positions create distorted probability signals, though the neutral regime score suggests no obvious manipulation. With 257 days to expiry and a wide 10¢ spread, this contract lacks the trading activity needed to establish a credible forecast on whether Eilish will appear on the podcast.

Resolution rules

If Billie Eilish goes on Call Her Daddy before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1885.8%

IY (No) 10.7%

Adj IY 943%

CRI 13

Overround 6.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1885.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	943%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:24:11 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 11:23:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-BIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →