Will Charli D’Amelio go on Call Her Daddy?

33¢

Bid/Ask 19/29¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $7·Closes Jan 1, 2027·257d remaining

KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-CHA

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with just $7 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 33¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 605% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability assessment, while the 10¢ spread represents a significant friction cost. With 257 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this market carries meaningful execution risk, though the stable 7-day price action suggests minimal recent conviction from traders.

Resolution rules

If Charli D’Amelio goes on Call Her Daddy before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 605.1%

IY (No) 33.3%

Adj IY 303%

CRI 4

Overround 6.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	605.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	303%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:24:11 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 11:23:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-CHA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →