Will Miley Cyrus go on Call Her Daddy?

42¢

Bid/Ask 43/54¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $761·Closes Jan 1, 2027·257d remaining

KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-MIL

7-day price113 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing a 42% probability for Miley Cyrus appearing on Call Her Daddy by year-end 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($761 open interest, $16 daily volume) and wide 12¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect true consensus—the 195% implied yield on the Yes side is notably asymmetric compared to 102.5% on No, indicating potential mispricing or strong directional conviction among limited participants. The 258-day timeframe provides ample runway for information arrival (0.7 events per hour), though the high realized volatility (185%) and recent 3¢ downward movement suggest uncertainty around whether the podcast appearance will materialize.

Resolution rules

If Miley Cyrus goes on Call Her Daddy before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 188.2%

IY (No) 107.1%

Adj IY 188%

CRI 1

RV 172%

VR 1.25

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	188.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	107.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	188%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	172%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.25	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:24:17 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 11:23:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-MIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →