Will Timothée Chalamet go on Call Her Daddy?

This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering a spectacular 1632% implied yield against just 12.3% for No—a red flag suggesting the 10¢ price may undervalue the true probability given Chalamet's celebrity status and the podcast's appeal to his demographic. The $85 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no trading activity, making the wide 11¢ spread unreliable for price discovery, while the 257-day timeframe provides ample opportunity for a guest appearance. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest this market has stalled without conviction, leaving significant uncertainty about whether the extreme yield differential reflects genuine mispricing or simply reflects the difficulty in assessing celebrity podcast appearance probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Timothée Chalamet goes on Call Her Daddy before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade