Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending April 20, 2026 be above 500ㅤ?

The market is pricing in a 93% probability of US flight cancellations exceeding 500 for the week ending April 20, 2026, with only 2 days until resolution and minimal liquidity at $10.42 in 24-hour volume. The extreme implied yield on the No side (100,000%) reflects the tight bid-ask spread and illiquidity rather than genuine uncertainty, while the modest 2-cent price decline over 7 days suggests stable conviction in the high probability outcome. With resolution imminent and a cliff risk index of 12, this market is approaching its data release point with little room for meaningful position adjustment.

Resolution rules

If the total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States figure displayed on FlightAware for week ending April 20, 2026 is above 500ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade