DOJ wins their anti-trust case against Apple?

The market is pricing in a 36% win probability for the DOJ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers 54.8% annualized yield versus just 13.3% for No, suggesting traders view the risk-reward as skewed toward betting against the government. Volume is thin at $473 in 24 hours against $7.8k open interest, and the recent 3-point price decline over seven days indicates modest bearish momentum, though with 1,353 days to expiry there's substantial time for case developments to reshape market sentiment.

Resolution rules

If District Court for the District of New Jersey finds Apple responsible for any of the anti-trust claims made by the Department of Justice, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade