Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Mike Collins is priced at an extremely high 91¢ across both Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting near-certainty of his Republican nomination, yet the market shows severe illiquidity with only $409 in 24-hour volume against $10.5k open interest and a massive 12,469% implied yield on the "No" side—suggesting the market may be mispriced or illiquid rather than informationally efficient. The 10-point cliff risk index combined with 86% realized volatility and a sharp 10-cent rally over seven days indicates this is a thin, volatile market where large moves could occur as the May 2026 primary approaches in just 30 days, making the extreme "No" odds potentially exploitable for contrarians with conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia. If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade