Will Tom Sherman win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Tom Sherman is priced at a 6¢ floor on Polymarket with virtually no 24-hour volume despite $12.4M in open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid market dominated by old positions. The 1¢ cross-venue gap to Kalshi (5¢) is modest but noteworthy given the zero recent trading activity, indicating potential arbitrage opportunity or simply thin liquidity across venues. The extreme 4037.8% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deep discount pricing rather than genuine market conviction, and with 142 days to expiry, this market carries meaningful cliff risk (score: 16) as the primary approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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