Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

The 21¢ price reflects deep skepticism about a Sudan ceasefire within 16 months, yet the extreme 530.6% implied yield on "Yes" positions signals substantial risk premium for believers in a resolution. The market shows concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $196k open interest and a wide 16¢ spread, while the extraordinary 1648% realized volatility and 6.82 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced dramatic price swings—suggesting either thin positioning or significant information events that haven't stabilized market consensus. With 5 info arrivals per hour and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, traders should expect continued volatility as developments in the active conflict filter into pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

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