Will A$AP Rocky have a top 10 song this year?

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing A$AP Rocky's top 10 prospects at 14¢ versus Polymarket's 10¢—a 40% gap that suggests either Kalshi overvalues his chances or Polymarket underprices them. The 971.4% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high, but the zero 24-hour volume and wide 16¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity, making the theoretical return difficult to realize in practice. With 251 days until expiry and a modest $613 open interest, this market lacks the depth to absorb meaningful position sizes, though the neutral regime and stable 7-day price action suggest no imminent catalyst is priced in.

Resolution rules

If A$AP Rocky has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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