Will BTS be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026?

4¢

Bid/Ask 4/12¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $123.24·OI $19,396.1·Closes May 1, 2026·12d remaining

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-BTS

7-day price97 snapshots · 28 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome for BTS to hit #1 on the Spotify USA daily chart in April 2026, with just a 4% implied probability and a staggering 96,222% annualized yield for Yes positions—a massive outlier that suggests either severe mispricing or extreme confidence in BTS's absence from the top spot. The sharp 40% price decline over seven days (5¢ to 3¢) combined with low 24-hour volume of $123.24 and a moderate cliff risk index of 32 raises concerns about thin liquidity and potential volatility as the May 1st expiration approaches in just 12 days. The neutral regime score and tight 1¢ spread provide little additional clarity, though the risk-adjusted yield of 16,035% indicates this contract carries substantial tail risk despite the low absolute price.

Resolution rules

If BTS has a #1 song on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 72217.6%

IY (No) 125.4%

Adj IY 27082%

CRI 24

Overround 0.2%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	72217.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	125.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	27082%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:55:04 AM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-BTS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →