Will Drake be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026?

12¢

Bid/Ask 10/14¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $663.9·OI $3,982.17·Closes May 1, 2026·12d remaining

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-DRA

7-day price249 snapshots · 23 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position trading at 11¢ after collapsing 68% over seven days (from 35¢), generating a nonsensical 23,229% implied yield that reflects illiquidity rather than genuine probability. The $3,981 open interest and $861 daily volume are thin for a binary event just 13 days from resolution, while the 6¢ spread and 2.01 volatility ratio suggest pricing uncertainty; notably, Drake's historical dominance on Spotify makes an 11% probability of any #1 hit in an entire month counterintuitively low, potentially indicating either capitulation selling or a data artifact from the sharp recent move.

Resolution rules

If Drake has a #1 song on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 27081.6%

IY (No) 334.3%

Adj IY 16249%

CRI 9

RV 2862%

VR 2.19

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	27081.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	334.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	16249%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2862%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.19	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:55:05 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-DRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →