Will Edward Dunn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Nebraska?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $405.66 open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity around a deeply mispriced contract. The 3¢ price implies an extraordinarily high 5,951% annualized yield on a Yes position, which is characteristic of thin markets where even small positions can create outsized percentage returns—this likely reflects speculative positioning rather than genuine probability assessment. With 198 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, there's moderate event concentration risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate catalysts are driving the market dynamics.

Resolution rules

If Edward Dunn wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Nebraska Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade