Will James Comey be arrested before Jan 2027?

The market has experienced dramatic volatility, with the price nearly doubling from 15¢ to 30¢ over seven days, though current 24-hour volume of $903 remains thin relative to the $145k open interest. The 331.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either significant tail-risk pricing or speculative positioning ahead of potential legal developments, though the neutral regime score and modest 0.4 information arrivals per hour indicate no imminent catalyst. With 257 days to expiration and a 4¢ spread, this market appears to be pricing in low-probability but high-impact scenarios rather than reflecting consensus expectations.

Resolution rules

If James Comey is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade