Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be out as Congresswoman before May 1, 2026?

With only 12 days until expiration, this market shows extreme annualized yields (2826% for Yes, 3317% for No) reflecting the binary nature of near-term political events, though the modest $70.13 daily volume and $4,080 open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The 52¢ price suggests near-even odds of the Florida congresswoman departing her seat, yet the sharp 50¢ price movement over seven days—from 2¢ to 52¢—suggests either new information emerged or the market is pricing in elevated near-term risk. The tight 2¢ spread and neutral regime score offer little additional clarity on directional conviction given the cliff risk index of 1, meaning resolution is imminent with no opportunity for price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leaves the House before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade