Will Susan Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Maine?

93¢

Bid/Ask 93/99¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $11,459·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXSENATEMER-26-SCOL

7-day price64 snapshots · 8 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing Susan Collins as an overwhelming favorite at 93¢, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—13.8% for Yes versus 2436% for No—reveal severe liquidity constraints on the No side with only $11,459 in open interest and $110 in daily volume. The 202% realized volatility and 5.46 vol ratio suggest this thin market experiences outsized price swings, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate given the 6¢ spread and high cliff risk index of 13.

Resolution rules

If Susan Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Maine Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 13.9%

IY (No) 2447.3%

Adj IY 2289%

CRI 13

RV 201%

VR 5.43

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	13.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2447.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2289%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	201%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.43	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:34:50 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 11:23:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSENATEMER-26-SCOL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →