Will Taylor Swift be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026?

3¢

Bid/Ask 3/5¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $15,277.66·Closes May 1, 2026·12d remaining

KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-TAY

7-day price286 snapshots · 20 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability despite Taylor Swift's consistent chart dominance—she's held #1 on Spotify's US daily chart dozens of times in recent years, making near-zero probability implausible. The 96,798% implied yield on Yes contracts and sharp 7-day price collapse from 9¢ to 3¢ suggest panic selling or liquidity crisis rather than fundamental reassessment, especially given the $0 24-hour volume and thin $15,277 open interest. With just 12 days to resolution and a 3,255% realized volatility, this appears to be a distressed market where the extreme odds likely don't reflect true probability.

Resolution rules

If Taylor Swift has a #1 song on Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 97293.2%

IY (No) 93.1%

Adj IY 32428%

CRI 32

RV 3484%

VR 1.23

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	97293.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	93.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	32428%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3484%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.23	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.67	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:54:49 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26MAY01-TAY yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →