Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 24% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
100 to 499
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
500 to 999
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump pardon
Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 50 to 99
KXPARDONSYEAR-26DEC-74
Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 1000 or more
KXPARDONSYEAR-26DEC-999
Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 500 to 999
KXPARDONSYEAR-26DEC-749
Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 100 to 499
KXPARDONSYEAR-26DEC-299
Analysis
This market estimates a 24% chance that Trump will issue between 50 and 99 pardons before the end of 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about both the scale of clemency actions and timing before year-end. Several factors influence the current level: Trump's historical clemency patterns from his first term (when he issued 143 total pardons, though concentrated in the final weeks), his current legal situation and political leverage, and the calendar constraint of only seven months remaining. The single biggest catalyst will be any actual pardon announcements Trump makes, which would either validate the baseline expectations or shift market perception. Each pardon issued moves traders closer to resolution, while mid-year silence could gradually compress probability downward as the window tightens.
- ›Trump's first term issued 143 total pardons, with most concentrated in the final weeks, establishing a precedent for concentrated clemency activity
- ›The remaining time horizon (7 months) creates pressure—if significant pardons haven't materialized by fall 2026, the 50-99 outcome becomes less likely
- ›Any actual pardon announcements will directly move this contract and reveal Trump's clemency intent for the remainder of 2026
- ›Political circumstances including ongoing legal cases and congressional dynamics may create windows where pardons become strategically useful or necessary
- ›Market is currently split across multiple outcome bands (50-99, 100+ ranges at Kalshi), suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus expectation
What moved the line
- May 750 to 99↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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