Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027
Leader sits at 64% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
2
Spread
49pp
contested
24h volume
$67
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump fire
Will Trump fire 3 Cabinet members before 2027?: 3
KXTRUMPFIRE-27-3
Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027?: 0
KXTRUMPFIRE-27-0
Will Trump fire 1 Cabinet members before 2027?: 1
KXTRUMPFIRE-27-1
Will Trump fire 2 Cabinet members before 2027?: 2
KXTRUMPFIRE-27-2
Analysis
This market estimates a 62% chance that Donald Trump will not remove any Cabinet members between now and January 1, 2027. Cabinet turnover reflects both policy disagreements and management style; Trump's first term saw significant personnel changes, while current stability depends on alignment with his administration and retention of key officials. The probability reflects market expectation of relative stability through year-end, though unforeseen policy conflicts or performance issues could trigger departures. The main catalyst will be observable Cabinet departures as they occur, with the contract resolving definitively on December 31, 2026 based on actual resignations, dismissals, or reassignments to Cabinet-level positions.
- ›Baseline Cabinet turnover rate during Trump's first term (2017-2021) saw approximately 9 Cabinet members depart over four years, suggesting historical precedent for personnel changes
- ›Current Cabinet members' public statements and loyalty signals to Trump's stated priorities will indicate stability; any public disagreements foreshadow potential departures
- ›Scheduled high-stakes policy decisions or legislative battles between May 2026 and December 2026 could strain Cabinet relationships and trigger exits
- ›Market is pricing in Trump's demonstrated preference for loyalty-based retention, which may support lower turnover than typical administrations
- ›Definition of 'Cabinet member' firing vs. voluntary resignation vs. reassignment to non-Cabinet roles will be critical to resolution clarity
What moved the line
- May 71↓9pp14→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 21↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 61↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 23↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 22↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.