Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon
United States is priced at 62¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 56¢ bid, 62¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon.
Price history
62¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
United States
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
United States 56¢
Range
1¢-56¢
Family volume
$891
Identifier
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
56¢
Ask
62¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$291
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
Family volume
$891
Orderbook snapshot
56 / 62¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
Identifier
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Event family
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$891
Outcomes
5
Highest price
United States 56¢
Current share
33%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 62% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.