Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
This contract is priced at 52¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 50¢ bid, 52¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
5
Family volume
$809
Best sibling
China 37¢
Ticker
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Price history
52¢ current
−4¢Orderbook snapshot
50 / 52¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
Identifier
KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Event family
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$809
Outcomes
5
Highest price
United States 50¢
Current share
81%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 52% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.