Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026?

The market is pricing HSI separation legislation at just 12¢ despite a 1,036.8% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting extremely thin liquidity ($325.97 open interest, $8 daily volume) is driving outsized returns rather than genuine probability assessment. The sharp 11¢ price surge over seven days combined with a wide 8¢ spread and elevated cliff risk (7/10) indicates this is a low-conviction, illiquid market vulnerable to small order flows. With 258 days to expiry and no recent legislative momentum on this specialized DHS reorganization proposal, the low price likely reflects genuine skepticism about passage rather than a mispriced opportunity.

Resolution rules

If legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade