Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

Kevin Hern is priced at a dominant 92¢ on Polymarket with minimal 24-hour volume ($0) and tight 2¢ spreads, suggesting strong consensus around his nomination but limited recent trading activity. The 200 basis point gap versus Kalshi (90¢) presents a modest arbitrage opportunity, though the thin liquidity ($11.7M open interest) and extreme "No" yield of 7284.9% indicate this market lacks depth for meaningful position-building. With 58 days to the June 2026 close and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in Hern as the clear frontrunner with little expectation of primary surprises.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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