Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma?

90¢

Bid/Ask 90/93¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $3,295·Closes Jun 16, 2027·423d remaining

KXSENATEOKR-26-KHER

7-day price27 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Kevin Hern is priced at an extremely high 90¢ probability on Kalshi with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the market may be stale or illiquid despite $3,295 open interest. The 2¢ cross-venue gap to Polymarket (92¢) is modest, but the asymmetric implied yields—9.6% for Yes versus 774.9% for No—reflect the lopsided pricing and indicate minimal conviction from contrarian bettors. With 424 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this appears to be a consensus market awaiting a catalyst to shift the heavily favored outcome.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 92¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 55.1%Close-time delta 8774h

Resolution rules

If Kevin Hern wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Oklahoma Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9.6%

IY (No) 776.3%

Adj IY 375%

CRI 9

LAS 0.03

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	776.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	375%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:52:15 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSENATEOKR-26-KHER yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →