Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for the Senate in South Carolina?

14¢

Bid/Ask 15/16¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $584.87·OI $23,051.19·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXSENATESCR-26-MLYN

7-day price65 snapshots · 18 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Mark Lynch's Republican nomination odds have surged 275% over seven days (4¢ to 15¢), though the 14¢ price still implies only a 14% probability with minimal liquidity at $584.87 daily volume. The extreme 1042.7% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the low entry price, but the modest 1¢ spread and near-parity pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket (14¢ vs 13¢) suggest the market is relatively efficient despite thin trading. With 198 days to the November 2026 close and a moderate cliff risk index of 6, this appears to be a speculative position on a long-shot candidate rather than a consensus favorite.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ 0¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 2186.9%Close-time delta 2295h

Resolution rules

If Mark Lynch wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate South Carolina Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1043.8%

IY (No) 32.5%

Adj IY 974%

CRI 6

RV 359%

VR 1.10

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1043.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	32.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	974%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	359%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.10	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:30:50 AM

Depth change (1h) 0.0%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 11:23:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSENATESCR-26-MLYN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →