Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 72% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Marquita Bradshaw
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Diana Onyeijaka
Spread
58pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$195
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 6, 2026
94 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Marquita Bradshaw
0x253a4a…35ba
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Diana Onyeijaka
0x9d34dd…75ed
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Kevin Lee McCants
0x69a253…7c59
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Civil Miller-Watkins
0xba0b63…49f3
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Maria Brewer
0x643a95…018d
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Marquita Bradshaw will win the Tennessee Democratic Senate primary, with a 72% implied likelihood based on aggregated prediction markets. The leading position likely reflects her visibility and fundraising relative to the runner-up candidate at 14%. Movement in this probability would depend on campaign developments, donor momentum, earned media, and polling data if available. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market; until then, changes in candidate viability signals—endorsements, cash-on-hand reports, debate performance, or local media coverage—would be the primary drivers of probability shifts.
- ›Marquita Bradshaw's current 72% price versus the runner-up's 14% suggests a meaningful but not overwhelming market confidence in her nomination path
- ›Market volume and pricing reflect real-money bets; the relative prices of four distinct contracts indicate differentiation among candidates rather than consensus certainty
- ›Tennessee's Democratic primary rules, voter registration numbers, and candidate filing deadlines establish hard constraints on who can compete and when the race concludes
- ›Public polling, FEC filings showing cash available, and endorsements from established Tennessee Democratic figures would provide testable signals of candidate momentum
- ›The gap between the leader (72%) and runner-up (14%) leaves room for a consolidation or surprise, suggesting the outcome remains contingent on primary-season events
What moved the line
- May 3Maria Brewer↓4pp18→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Civil Miller-Watkins↓3pp12→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Civil Miller-Watkins↓3pp9→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Kevin Lee McCants↑3pp1→4¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.