Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 64% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Marquita Bradshaw
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Maria Brewer
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 6, 2026
48 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Marquita Bradshaw will win the Tennessee Democratic Senate primary, with a 72% implied likelihood based on aggregated prediction markets. The leading position likely reflects her visibility and fundraising relative to the runner-up candidate at 14%. Movement in this probability would depend on campaign developments, donor momentum, earned media, and polling data if available. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market; until then, changes in candidate viability signals—endorsements, cash-on-hand reports, debate performance, or local media coverage—would be the primary drivers of probability shifts.
- ›Marquita Bradshaw's current 72% price versus the runner-up's 14% suggests a meaningful but not overwhelming market confidence in her nomination path
- ›Market volume and pricing reflect real-money bets; the relative prices of four distinct contracts indicate differentiation among candidates rather than consensus certainty
- ›Tennessee's Democratic primary rules, voter registration numbers, and candidate filing deadlines establish hard constraints on who can compete and when the race concludes
- ›Public polling, FEC filings showing cash available, and endorsements from established Tennessee Democratic figures would provide testable signals of candidate momentum
- ›The gap between the leader (72%) and runner-up (14%) leaves room for a consolidation or surprise, suggesting the outcome remains contingent on primary-season events
What moved the line
- Jun 16Maria Brewer↑10pp16→26¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18Maria Brewer↓5pp29→24¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Marquita Bradshaw↓4pp70→66¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Maria Brewer↑3pp26→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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