Iran Peace Deal Optimism Fades: June 7 Contract Drops 5¢
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 has dropped 5¢ to just 7¢, while the June 30 deadline sits at 25¢. Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, which supports oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 has dropped 5¢ to just 7¢, while the June 30 deadline sits at 25¢.
- 02
Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, which supports oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums.
- 03
Iran negotiation markets are showing clear signs of fading optimism.
Full analysis
Iran negotiation markets are showing clear signs of fading optimism. The 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7' contract dropped 5¢ to 7¢ on 1.29M volume. The June 30 contract is at 25¢ (down 5¢), and the December 31 contract is the highest at 73¢ (up 2¢). This indicates traders expect prolonged negotiations. The 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May' contract remains at 0¢, underscoring the ongoing disruption. Key contracts to watch: the 'Iran closes its airspace by May 31' at 0¢ (down 6¢) and the 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31' at 0¢ (down 2¢). These moves are supportive for oil prices given the risk to Hormuz shipping.
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