other · captured 2026-08-01 · with live markets
Luis Arráez
Venezuelan baseball player
Wikidata Q63982823
Why now
Recent reports indicate the San Francisco Giants are implementing significant changes to their roster and coaching staff, with Luis Arráez at the center of discussions. The New York Times examined the market for Arráez, while the Giants' management has signaled that adjustments are coming starting with the Venezuelan outfielder. This uncertainty around his role and potential departure has intensified speculation about his future performance metrics and trade value heading into the season.
Live prediction markets
2 events
- 01
MLB: Triples Leader: Luis Arraez
Polymarket · ticker 0xb1a78a067b8321fdd9cb83f853182199bf0bb3
2¢$0 24h vol
- 02
MLB: Batting Average Leader: Luis Arraez
Polymarket · ticker 0xe94d350365031c8d25f1110494672f3fbb8387
33¢$0 24h vol
Arráez's career batting average prowess is reflected in prediction markets, with his batting average leader contract trading at 33 cents on Polymarket. His triples leader contract sits at just 2 cents on the same venue, suggesting markets see limited probability he leads the league in that category despite his speed and base-running ability.
Top news
What to watch
Arráez's 2024 batting average and triple totals will determine whether prediction market odds shift. His performance through April and May, combined with any official Giants trade announcements, could significantly impact where he finishes in league statistical races. Monitor whether he maintains his historical batting title contention form or experiences disruption from the organizational changes.
Tracked since
2026-08-01
Latest snapshot: 2026-08-01
1 observation from trends_us
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 17 h ago.