SimpleFunctions

How It Works

You have a thesis about the world. SimpleFunctions turns it into a trading system.

1

Write your thesis

“The US-Iran war will persist. Hormuz stays closed. Oil stays above $100. SPR can't compensate. The Fed is trapped between inflation and recession.”

Plain text. No special format. Write what you believe and why.

2

Causal tree

The system decomposes your thesis into a tree of verifiable assumptions:

causal tree — f582bf76
  n1  War persists ........................ 88%
    n1.1  US initiated strikes .......... 99%
    n1.2  Iran continues retaliation .... 85%
    n1.3  No diplomatic exit ............ 82%
  n2  Hormuz blocked .................... 97%
    n2.1  Mines deployed ................ 99%
    n2.2  IRGC small craft active ....... 90%
    n2.3  Minesweeping takes 3+ months .. 87%
  n3  Oil stays elevated ................ 64%
  n4  Recession ........................... 45%

Each node has a probability. Nodes are causally linked — when upstream nodes change, downstream nodes update.

3

Edge detection

The system scans Kalshi and Polymarket for contracts related to your causal tree. For each contract, it calculates:

Thesis price

What the contract should be worth if your thesis is correct

Market price

What it actually trades at

Edge

Thesis price − market price

Executable edge

Edge minus orderbook spread

edge analysis
  Recession 2026 YES    market 35¢   thesis 72¢   edge +37   spread 1¢   high liquidity
  WTI $150 YES          market 38¢   thesis 75¢   edge +37   spread 1¢   high liquidity
  Gas $4.50 Mar YES     market 14¢   thesis 55¢   edge +41   spread 3¢   med liquidity

This means: the market thinks recession is 35% likely. Your thesis thinks it's 72%. If you're right, this contract is massively underpriced.

4

24/7 monitoring

Every 15 minutes, the heartbeat engine runs automatically:

📰

News scan

Searches for relevant news based on causal tree keywords

💰

Price refresh

Fetches live prices for all tracked contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket

📊

Orderbook enrichment

Gets bid/ask/depth for contracts with significant edges

🧠

Evaluation

AI model assesses how new information affects your causal tree

🔔

Notification

Alerts you when confidence changes significantly (webhook or poll)

You don't need to watch the market. The system watches for you.

5

Act

sf positions   # your holdings overlaid with thesis edges
sf edges       # best opportunities across all theses
sf agent       # discuss strategy in natural language

The system tells you what to trade and why. You decide when and how much.

Live edges right now

▲ 55¢Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
70¢kalshi
▲ 53¢Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?: May 15
93¢polymarket
▲ 52¢Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30
87¢polymarket
▲ 49¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 3
14¢kalshi
▲ 49¢US recession by end of 2026?
23¢polymarket
▲ 45¢Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
27¢kalshi
▲ 45¢US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 15
11¢polymarket
▲ 45¢Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the S
75¢kalshi
▲ 45¢Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by .
60¢polymarket
▲ 43¢Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernator
27¢kalshi

Updated every 15 minutes · data from Kalshi and Polymarket

17812 markets trackedKalshi 3000Polymarket 14812· May 1, 06:01 AM
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