How It Works
You have a thesis about the world. SimpleFunctions turns it into a trading system.
Write your thesis
“The US-Iran war will persist. Hormuz stays closed. Oil stays above $100. SPR can't compensate. The Fed is trapped between inflation and recession.”
Plain text. No special format. Write what you believe and why.
Causal tree
The system decomposes your thesis into a tree of verifiable assumptions:
n1 War persists ........................ 88%
n1.1 US initiated strikes .......... 99%
n1.2 Iran continues retaliation .... 85%
n1.3 No diplomatic exit ............ 82%
n2 Hormuz blocked .................... 97%
n2.1 Mines deployed ................ 99%
n2.2 IRGC small craft active ....... 90%
n2.3 Minesweeping takes 3+ months .. 87%
n3 Oil stays elevated ................ 64%
n4 Recession ........................... 45%Each node has a probability. Nodes are causally linked — when upstream nodes change, downstream nodes update.
Edge detection
The system scans Kalshi and Polymarket for contracts related to your causal tree. For each contract, it calculates:
Thesis price
What the contract should be worth if your thesis is correct
Market price
What it actually trades at
Edge
Thesis price − market price
Executable edge
Edge minus orderbook spread
Recession 2026 YES market 35¢ thesis 72¢ edge +37 spread 1¢ high liquidity
WTI $150 YES market 38¢ thesis 75¢ edge +37 spread 1¢ high liquidity
Gas $4.50 Mar YES market 14¢ thesis 55¢ edge +41 spread 3¢ med liquidityThis means: the market thinks recession is 35% likely. Your thesis thinks it's 72%. If you're right, this contract is massively underpriced.
24/7 monitoring
Every 15 minutes, the heartbeat engine runs automatically:
News scan
Searches for relevant news based on causal tree keywords
Price refresh
Fetches live prices for all tracked contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket
Orderbook enrichment
Gets bid/ask/depth for contracts with significant edges
Evaluation
AI model assesses how new information affects your causal tree
Notification
Alerts you when confidence changes significantly (webhook or poll)
You don't need to watch the market. The system watches for you.
Act
sf positions # your holdings overlaid with thesis edges
sf edges # best opportunities across all theses
sf agent # discuss strategy in natural languageThe system tells you what to trade and why. You decide when and how much.
Free during beta · charge by token after 15M