How does SimpleFunctions work?

Write a thesis in plain text. SimpleFunctions decomposes it into a causal tree of verifiable assumptions, scans Kalshi and Polymarket for mispriced contracts, and monitors 24/7 with live orderbook data. When edge appears, it tells you what to trade and why.

What is a thesis in prediction markets?

A thesis is a structured belief about future events. SimpleFunctions turns plain-text theses into causal trees with probability-weighted nodes. Each node maps to tradeable prediction market contracts, letting you see where the market disagrees with your model.

How does edge detection work?

The system compares your thesis-implied probability for each contract against the live market price. The difference is the edge. It also factors in orderbook spread and depth to calculate executable edge — the real profit opportunity after trading costs.

Can I automate prediction market trading?

Yes. SimpleFunctions exposes its capabilities through the CLI first, REST/API second, and MCP adapter last. AI agents can read context, identify edges, and place orders automatically. The heartbeat engine monitors positions and manages orders 24/7.

How It Works

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

You have a thesis about the world. SimpleFunctions turns it into a trading system.

Write your thesis

“The US-Iran war will persist. Hormuz stays closed. Oil stays above $100. SPR can't compensate. The Fed is trapped between inflation and recession.”

Plain text. No special format. Write what you believe and why.

Causal tree

The system decomposes your thesis into a tree of verifiable assumptions:

causal tree — f582bf76

  n1  War persists ........................ 88%
    n1.1  US initiated strikes .......... 99%
    n1.2  Iran continues retaliation .... 85%
    n1.3  No diplomatic exit ............ 82%
  n2  Hormuz blocked .................... 97%
    n2.1  Mines deployed ................ 99%
    n2.2  IRGC small craft active ....... 90%
    n2.3  Minesweeping takes 3+ months .. 87%
  n3  Oil stays elevated ................ 64%
  n4  Recession ........................... 45%

Each node has a probability. Nodes are causally linked — when upstream nodes change, downstream nodes update.

Edge detection

The system scans Kalshi and Polymarket for contracts related to your causal tree. For each contract, it calculates:

Thesis price

What the contract should be worth if your thesis is correct

Market price

What it actually trades at

Edge

Thesis price − market price

Executable edge

Edge minus orderbook spread

edge analysis

  Recession 2026 YES    market 35¢   thesis 72¢   edge +37   spread 1¢   high liquidity
  WTI $150 YES          market 38¢   thesis 75¢   edge +37   spread 1¢   high liquidity
  Gas $4.50 Mar YES     market 14¢   thesis 55¢   edge +41   spread 3¢   med liquidity

This means: the market prices recession at 35%. Your thesis puts it at 72%. If you're right, this contract is massively underpriced.

24/7 monitoring

Every 15 minutes, the heartbeat engine runs automatically:

📰

News scan

Searches for relevant news based on causal tree keywords

💰

Price refresh

Fetches live prices for all tracked contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket

📊

Orderbook enrichment

Gets bid/ask/depth for contracts with significant edges

🧠

Evaluation

AI model assesses how new information affects your causal tree

🔔

Notification

Alerts you when confidence changes significantly (webhook or poll)

You don't need to watch the market. The system watches for you.

Act

sf positions   # your holdings overlaid with thesis edges
sf edges       # best opportunities across all theses
sf agent       # discuss strategy in natural language

The system tells you what to trade and why. You decide when and how much.

Live edges right now

▲ 60¢How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?

36¢kalshi

▲ 60¢Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

75¢kalshi

▲ 60¢Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index?

6¢kalshi

▲ 59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 3

21¢kalshi

▲ 59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 3

31¢kalshi

▲ 58¢May Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%

7¢polymarket

▲ 58¢Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

18¢kalshi

▲ 58¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 3

12¢kalshi

▲ 58¢Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for June 2026

30¢kalshi

▲ 58¢Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in June 2026?

8¢kalshi

Updated every 15 minutes · data from Kalshi and Polymarket

16406 markets trackedKalshi 3000Polymarket 13406· Jun 15, 06:01 AM

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