Kalshi vs Polymarket — Real-Time Comparison
Side-by-side comparison with live data. Updated hourly.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Active contracts | 24435 | 9677 |
| 24h volume | $34226721 | $24914812 |
| Avg spread (LAS) | 0.54¢ | 0.38¢ |
| Regulation | CFTC-regulated (US) | Offshore (Curaçao) |
| Settlement | USD | USDC |
| Min trade | $1 | $1 |
| API | REST + WebSocket | CLOB v2 |
| Fee structure | Exchange fees (1-7%) | ~2% on winning |
| US access | Full (regulated) | Restricted (VPN common) |
| Mobile app | iOS + Android | Web + PWA |
Live Price Differences
Top 10 matched markets by price gap between Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Market | Kalshi | Poly | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? | 33¢ | 37¢ | 4¢ |
| Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Nikita Kucherov | 35¢ | 31¢ | 4¢ |
| Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Connor McDavid | 44¢ | 43¢ | 1¢ |
| Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?: Nathan MacKinnon | 21¢ | 22¢ | 1¢ |
| Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy?: Cale Makar | 6¢ | 5¢ | 1¢ |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which is better, Kalshi or Polymarket?
For US-based traders, Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated option with legal certainty. Polymarket offers tighter spreads and deeper liquidity on major events but operates offshore. The best approach is to compare prices on both — SimpleFunctions shows real-time cross-venue price differences.
What is the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange based in the US, settling in USD. Polymarket is an offshore platform settling in USDC (crypto). Kalshi has more contract types (weather, economics, flights). Polymarket has deeper liquidity on political events.
Can I arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Price differences exist on matched events. SimpleFunctions tracks cross-venue pairs and computes confidence scores for matches. Note that settlement risk differs between venues, and USDC conversion adds friction to true arbitrage.