Above 1505 · next Claude Opus debut score?: Above 1
Above 1505 is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 12 inside next Claude Opus debut score?: Above 1.
Price history
14¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If A model called Opus 4.9 or greater scores Above 1505 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 1505
Rank
#10 of 12
Leader
Above 1460 94¢
Range
4¢-94¢
Family volume
$832
Identifier
KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1505
Jul 26, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$200
Family rank
#10 of 12
12 outcomes · next Claude Opus debut score?: Above 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$832
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If A model called Opus 4.9 or greater scores Above 1505 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1505
Event family
next Claude Opus debut score?: Above 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$832
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Above 1460 94¢
Current share
0%
Above 1460
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1460
Above 1465
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1465
Above 1470
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1470
Above 1475
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1475
Above 1480
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1480
Above 1485
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1485
Above 1490
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1490
Above 1495
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1495
Above 1500
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1500
Above 1505
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1505
Above 1510
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1510
Above 1515
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1515
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.