Before Aug 1, 2026 · Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved before
Before Aug 1, 2026 is priced at 58¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 58¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved before.
Price history
58¢ current
−18¢Contract brief
If the Israeli Knesset is dissolved before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 1, 2026
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Before Sep 1, 2026 74¢
Range
3¢-74¢
Family volume
$252
Identifier
KXKNESSET-27-AUG01
Jun 25, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
58¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$166
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved before
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$252
Orderbook snapshot
58 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Israeli Knesset is dissolved before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXKNESSET-27-AUG01
Event family
Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$252
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Sep 1, 2026 74¢
Current share
66%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 58% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.