ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ (3% probability) price implying an extraordinary 4553% annualized yield on the Yes side, yet it's trading with zero 24-hour volume and $23k open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ (3% probability) price implying an extraordinary 4553% annualized yield on the Yes side, yet it's trading with zero 24-hour volume and $23k open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential stale pricing. The resolution range of $3,500-$3,749.99 for ETH represents only a 7-10% move from current levels over 259 days, making the 97% implied probability of prices falling outside this narrow band highly suspect given the neutral market regime and flat recent price action. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and 1¢ spread indicate this contract may be mispriced due to low trading activity rather than genuine market conviction.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 3500.00-3749.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B3625 yes 100