7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch above 60 before June 1, 2026
Before Jun 1, 2026 is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 9 inside Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before.
Price history
3¢ current
−33¢Contract brief
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jun 1, 2026
Rank
#9 of 9
Leader
Before Jul 1, 2027 88¢
Range
3¢-88¢
Family volume
$774K
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
May 24, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$354K
Family rank
#9 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$774K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
Event family
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$774K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Before Jul 1, 2027 88¢
Current share
46%
Before Jul 1, 2027
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701
Before Jun 15, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615
Before Jun 1, 2026
kalshi · KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027
80: Above 80
Will Sonny Styles be drafted before Jeremiyah Love
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?: 0-10
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.