Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor for Game 1

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

The Longshot Bias in Modern Prediction Markets — 80 Years of Evidence in One Number

Horse racing has an 80-year longshot bias. Polymarket and Kalshi have one too — but the direction is opposite. What the calibration data on cheap and expensive contracts actually says.

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Steam Moves Across Venues: When Sharp Money Hits Both Books at Once

Steam — the simultaneous coordinated movement of two prediction-market venues — is the highest-quality cross-venue signal because it is hard to fake. How to detect it, why to follow it, and the two failure modes that look like steam but are not.

Why a "DCF" of a Prediction Market Is Mathematically Incoherent

A binary prediction-market contract has one cash flow at one date. The DCF identity collapses into the implied yield equation. There is nothing to compute that IY does not already give you.

Yield Curve (Prediction Markets)

A prediction-market yield curve plots implied yield against τ-days across all sibling contracts in an event family. Borrowed from bond desks, enabled by cycle clustering.