SimpleFunctions

Will Michael Penix Jr. be the Falcons' Week 1 starting QB

Will Michael Penix Jr. be the Falcons' Week 1 starting QB is priced at 50¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 97¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

50¢ current

50¢
Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the player that is officially announced by the Atlanta Falcons to be the starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event that no starting quarterback is officially announced by the team, this market will resolve in favor of the listed quarterback who takes the field on the Atlanta Falcons' first offensive play. In the event two listed quarterbacks take the field on the first offensive play of the Atlanta Falcons' Week 1 game, this market will resolve in favor of the player directly receiving the snap. If neither listed quarterback directly receives the snap, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback who first directly receives a snap in the game. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official starter has taken the field within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL and/or the Atlanta Falcons; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Will Michael Penix Jr. be the Falcons' Week 1 starting QB

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$0

Identifier

0x52ca46db...eaeb

Sep 4, 2026, 4:24 AM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

50¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 4, 2026, 4:24 AM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

Ask

98¢

Spread

97¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Sep 14, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 98¢

Polymarket
97¢ spread
BidSize
100¢450
AskSize
98¢65
99¢3.8K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the player that is officially announced by the Atlanta Falcons to be the starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event that no starting quarterback is officially announced by the team, this market will resolve in favor of the listed quarterback who takes the field on the Atlanta Falcons' first offensive play. In the event two listed quarterbacks take the field on the first offensive play of the Atlanta Falcons' Week 1 game, this market will resolve in favor of the player directly receiving the snap. If neither listed quarterback directly receives the snap, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback who first directly receives a snap in the game. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official starter has taken the field within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL and/or the Atlanta Falcons; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Sep 14, 2026

Identifier

0x52ca46db…eaeb

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will Michael Penix Jr. be the Falcons' Week 1 starting QB 50¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.