SimpleFunctions

Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20

Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20 is priced at 27¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 43¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

27¢ current

25¢30¢
Oct 12, 2026Oct 12, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 50 flights depart from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) within a single calendar day in Riyadh local time (Arabia Standard Time, AST), between the date of market creation and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Departures will be evaluated as displayed by FlightAware on its King Khalid Int'l Airport (Riyadh) RUH airport page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK) and the corresponding departures page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK/departures). Only confirmed departures, displayed with an actual departure time, qualify; scheduled departures do not qualify. Only departures occurring after market creation will count. All departures displayed by FlightAware count toward the threshold, regardless of airline, destination, or flight type. Obviously erroneous departures will not count toward the threshold, whether or not FlightAware corrects them. A departure is obviously erroneous if FlightAware's own flight data (e.g., its flight map, track, or track log) shows that the aircraft did not take off from RUH, such as a flight shown departing RUH based on its scheduled routing while its track originates at a different airport. Multiple listings of the same physical departure (e.g., codeshare flight numbers) will count as a single departure. A discrepancy between FlightAware and alternative sources will not, on its own, make a departure erroneous. If the resolution of this market depends on whether one or more departures are erroneous, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (AST) after the date of the relevant departures to allow FlightAware to correct its data. If FlightAware has not corrected its data by then, this market will resolve based on the data FlightAware displays at that time, excluding any obviously erroneous departures as described above. Announcements, NOTAMs, airline schedules, or reports that the airport has reopened will not qualify on their own if FlightAware does not display at least 50 departures within a single calendar day (AST). The resolution source for this market will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK).

Outcome

Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20

Rank

Standalone

Leader

—

Range

—

Family volume

$0

Identifier

0x413777b8...b145

Oct 12, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

27¢
Latest venue quote
Oct 12, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

7¢

Ask

50¢

Spread

43¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Oct 21, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 50¢

Polymarket
43¢ spread
BidSize
100¢247
7¢58
6¢6
5¢200
3¢58
2¢100
AskSize
50¢20
97¢23
98¢50
99¢3.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 50 flights depart from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) within a single calendar day in Riyadh local time (Arabia Standard Time, AST), between the date of market creation and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Departures will be evaluated as displayed by FlightAware on its King Khalid Int'l Airport (Riyadh) RUH airport page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK) and the corresponding departures page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK/departures). Only confirmed departures, displayed with an actual departure time, qualify; scheduled departures do not qualify. Only departures occurring after market creation will count. All departures displayed by FlightAware count toward the threshold, regardless of airline, destination, or flight type. Obviously erroneous departures will not count toward the threshold, whether or not FlightAware corrects them. A departure is obviously erroneous if FlightAware's own flight data (e.g., its flight map, track, or track log) shows that the aircraft did not take off from RUH, such as a flight shown departing RUH based on its scheduled routing while its track originates at a different airport. Multiple listings of the same physical departure (e.g., codeshare flight numbers) will count as a single departure. A discrepancy between FlightAware and alternative sources will not, on its own, make a departure erroneous. If the resolution of this market depends on whether one or more departures are erroneous, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (AST) after the date of the relevant departures to allow FlightAware to correct its data. If FlightAware has not corrected its data by then, this market will resolve based on the data FlightAware displays at that time, excluding any obviously erroneous departures as described above. Announcements, NOTAMs, airline schedules, or reports that the airport has reopened will not qualify on their own if FlightAware does not display at least 50 departures within a single calendar day (AST). The resolution source for this market will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK).

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Oct 21, 2026

Identifier

0x413777b8…b145

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20 27¢

Current share

—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.