Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20
Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20 is priced at 27¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 43¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
27¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 50 flights depart from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) within a single calendar day in Riyadh local time (Arabia Standard Time, AST), between the date of market creation and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Departures will be evaluated as displayed by FlightAware on its King Khalid Int'l Airport (Riyadh) RUH airport page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK) and the corresponding departures page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK/departures). Only confirmed departures, displayed with an actual departure time, qualify; scheduled departures do not qualify. Only departures occurring after market creation will count. All departures displayed by FlightAware count toward the threshold, regardless of airline, destination, or flight type. Obviously erroneous departures will not count toward the threshold, whether or not FlightAware corrects them. A departure is obviously erroneous if FlightAware's own flight data (e.g., its flight map, track, or track log) shows that the aircraft did not take off from RUH, such as a flight shown departing RUH based on its scheduled routing while its track originates at a different airport. Multiple listings of the same physical departure (e.g., codeshare flight numbers) will count as a single departure. A discrepancy between FlightAware and alternative sources will not, on its own, make a departure erroneous. If the resolution of this market depends on whether one or more departures are erroneous, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (AST) after the date of the relevant departures to allow FlightAware to correct its data. If FlightAware has not corrected its data by then, this market will resolve based on the data FlightAware displays at that time, excluding any obviously erroneous departures as described above. Announcements, NOTAMs, airline schedules, or reports that the airport has reopened will not qualify on their own if FlightAware does not display at least 50 departures within a single calendar day (AST). The resolution source for this market will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK).
Outcome
Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
0x413777b8...b145
Oct 12, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
43¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 21, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 50 flights depart from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) within a single calendar day in Riyadh local time (Arabia Standard Time, AST), between the date of market creation and the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Departures will be evaluated as displayed by FlightAware on its King Khalid Int'l Airport (Riyadh) RUH airport page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK) and the corresponding departures page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK/departures). Only confirmed departures, displayed with an actual departure time, qualify; scheduled departures do not qualify. Only departures occurring after market creation will count. All departures displayed by FlightAware count toward the threshold, regardless of airline, destination, or flight type. Obviously erroneous departures will not count toward the threshold, whether or not FlightAware corrects them. A departure is obviously erroneous if FlightAware's own flight data (e.g., its flight map, track, or track log) shows that the aircraft did not take off from RUH, such as a flight shown departing RUH based on its scheduled routing while its track originates at a different airport. Multiple listings of the same physical departure (e.g., codeshare flight numbers) will count as a single departure. A discrepancy between FlightAware and alternative sources will not, on its own, make a departure erroneous. If the resolution of this market depends on whether one or more departures are erroneous, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (AST) after the date of the relevant departures to allow FlightAware to correct its data. If FlightAware has not corrected its data by then, this market will resolve based on the data FlightAware displays at that time, excluding any obviously erroneous departures as described above. Announcements, NOTAMs, airline schedules, or reports that the airport has reopened will not qualify on their own if FlightAware does not display at least 50 departures within a single calendar day (AST). The resolution source for this market will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 21, 2026
Identifier
0x413777b8…b145
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 20 27¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 27% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.