Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026 is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
24¢ current
−9¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Outcome
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$119K
Identifier
0x3ff9124b...1d27
Jul 16, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$119K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3ff9124b…1d27
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$119K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026 24¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.