Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026 is priced at 15¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
15¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
0x044523b1...ad9e
Jul 27, 2026, 11:09 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x044523b1…ad9e
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026 15¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 15% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.