What is the current probability for "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1562.1% and 2.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This micro-liquidity market on Wendy Huang's CA-14 prospects shows extreme illiquidity with only $4 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 4/6¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $4·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXCA14SWINNER-26-WHUA

7-day price4 snapshots · 2 regime

4¢4¢ current

Apr 143¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This micro-liquidity market on Wendy Huang's CA-14 prospects shows extreme illiquidity with only $4 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable. The 1548.8% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of minimal trading depth rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity, while the modest 7-day price movement from 3¢ to 4¢ suggests limited conviction among the few participants. With 566 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, this market lacks sufficient depth to serve as a reliable probability estimate for the special election outcome.

Resolution rules

If Wendy Huang wins the 2026 CA-14 special election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1562.1%

IY (No) 2.7%

Adj IY 781%

CRI 24

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1562.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	781%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:40 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXCA14SWINNER-26-WHUA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →