What is the current probability for "Will ENHYPEN have a #1 album this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 62¢ (62% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 27, 2026. 157 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will ENHYPEN have a #1 album this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 223.7% and 242.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will ENHYPEN have a #1 album this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — computed indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

ENHYPEN · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

ENHYPEN is priced at 62¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 50¢ bid, 62¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside KX1ALBUM-26DEC.

Open on Kalshi View JSON Enter terminal

Price history

62¢ current

+53¢

0¢25¢50¢

Jul 2, 2026Jul 23, 2026

Contract brief

If ENHYPEN has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

ENHYPEN

Rank

#6 of 16

Leader

Gracie Abrams 99¢

Range

2¢-99¢

Family volume

$11K

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ENH

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

62¢

Latest venue quote

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

50¢

Ask

62¢

Spread

12¢

24h volume

Family rank

#6 of 16

16 outcomes · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Family volume

$11K

Orderbook snapshot

50 / 62¢

Kalshi

12¢ spread

BidSize

50¢2

49¢100

46¢500

37¢100

36¢47

AskSize

62¢1

63¢500

64¢50

67¢100

69¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If ENHYPEN has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ENH

SF Signal

SF Index

92.66

Regime

neutral

Event family

KX1ALBUM-26DEC.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$11K

Outcomes

Highest price

Gracie Abrams 99¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Gracie Abrams

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-GRA

99¢

$1K$1K—

Ariana Grande

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ARI

96¢

$4K$4K0.0

Stray Kids

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-STR

89¢

$3K$3K—

Beyoncé

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-BEY

63¢

$21$21—

Post Malone

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-POS

59¢

$51$51—

ENHYPEN

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ENH

51¢

$2$20.2

Charli xcx

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-XCX

39¢

$780$780—

Lana Del Rey

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-LAN

21¢

$24$24—

Billie Eilish

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-BIL

17¢

$865$865—

Lil Baby

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-BAB

15¢

$600$6000.7

Olivia Dean

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-OLI

15¢

$34$34—

Lil Wayne

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-WAY

13¢

$47$47—

sombr

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-SOM

9¢

$642$642—

Joji

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-JOJ

3¢

$103$103—

Tyla

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-TYL

3¢

$25$25—

2 Chainz

kalshi · KX1ALBUM-26DEC-2CH

2¢

$25$25—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

223.7%

IY (No)

242.3%

Adj IY

93%

CRI

Overround

9.8%

LAS

0.24

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)

223.7%

Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side

IY (No)

242.3%

Annualized return, NO side

Adj IY

93%

Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction

CRI

Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Overround

9.8%

Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

LAS

0.24

Liquidity Availability Score

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 62% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.