Nico Denz · KXCYCLING-26TDFR
Nico Denz is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXCYCLING-26TDFR.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
If Nico Denz wins the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled from Jul 4, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Nico Denz
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Tadej Pogacar 94¢
Range
1¢-94¢
Family volume
$65K
Identifier
KXCYCLING-26TDFR-NDEN
Jul 13, 2026, 6:06 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · KXCYCLING-26TDFR
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Family volume
$65K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Nico Denz wins the 2026 Tour de France Cycling Grand Tour originally scheduled from Jul 4, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Identifier
KXCYCLING-26TDFR-NDEN
Event family
KXCYCLING-26TDFR.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$65K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Tadej Pogacar 94¢
Current share
0%
Tadej Pogacar
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-TPOG
Jonas Vingegaard
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-JVIN
Isaac Del Toro Romero
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-IDEL
Alexander Aranburu Deba
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-AARA
Nico Denz
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-NDEN
Alex Molenaar
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-AMOL
Biniam Ghirmay
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-BGHI
Ben Healy
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-BHEA
Brandon McNulty
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-BMCN
Clement Berthet
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-CBER
Egan Bernal
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-EBER
Florian Lipowitz
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-FLIP
Frank van Den Broek
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-FVAN
Julian Alaphilippe
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-JALA
Juan Ayuso Pesquera
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-JAYU
Jose Felix Parra
kalshi · KXCYCLING-26TDFR-JPAR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.