Will Toluca win the 1st Half
Will Toluca win the 1st Half is priced at 47¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 46¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
47¢ current
+45¢Contract brief
If Toluca is the winner of the first half in the Toluca vs Pumas UNAM professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 21, 2026 after 45 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Toluca win the 1st Half
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXLIGAMX1H-26JUL21TOLPUM-TOL
Jul 22, 2026, 1:16 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$958
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Toluca is the winner of the first half in the Toluca vs Pumas UNAM professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 21, 2026 after 45 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
Identifier
KXLIGAMX1H-26JUL21TOLPUM-TOL
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Toluca win the 1st Half 47¢
Current share
100%
Will Toluca win the 1st Half
kalshi · KXLIGAMX1H-26JUL21TOLPUM-TOL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 47% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.