Causal Tree Decomposition

The core probability engine behind SimpleFunctions' thesis evaluation, extracted and open-sourced. Give it a thesis (free-form text) and it returns a directed-acyclic tree of sub-claims with calibrated confidences, rolled up to a single root probability.

Runs offline (no API required), zero runtime dependencies. Use it as a reasoning scaffold, a Bayesian update engine, or a post-hoc explainer for LLM judgments.

Quickstart

import { decompose, rollUp } from 'causal-tree-decomposition'

const tree = decompose('Fed cuts rates 50bps by Oct 2026')
const p = rollUp(tree)       // 0..1