Will the copper close price be above 5.60 USD/Lbs on June 29, 2026 at 5

The yield curve displays a dramatic bimodal structure with a sharp discontinuity around the 5.80 strike level. Below 5.80, probabilities cluster in the 57-67% range, representing the cheapest YES probabilities across the entire curve. Above 5.80, probabilities spike dramatically to 95-98%, creating a steep cliff that persists through the 5.90-6.02 tenor range before gradually declining. This inverted, cliff-like shape is highly unusual compared to typical smooth term structures and suggests a discrete market event or threshold rather than a continuous distribution of outcomes. The market is currently pricing in an extremely high probability that copper will close above 5.80 within the 2-day window, with conviction concentrated in the 5.80-6.02 range where probabilities remain stubbornly elevated at 95%+. The dramatic probability collapse below 5.80 indicates the market views this level as a critical support or resistance point, with outcomes below it considered substantially less likely. The persistence of 95%+ probabilities across multiple strikes above 5.80 suggests the market expects copper to either remain well above this threshold or move decisively higher, rather than hovering near it. The flattening tail above 6.02, where probabilities gradually decline from 82% to 3%, indicates diminishing conviction about higher price levels, but the overall structure conveys strong directional bias toward elevated copper prices over the next two days.