Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 4 million gold subscribers in fiscal 2026

The prediction market exhibits a dramatically inverted yield curve, with the near-term 234-day tenor displaying substantially lower YES probabilities than the longer-dated 558-day tenor across comparable strike levels. At the 234-day maturity, YES probabilities cluster in a wide range from 2% to 95%, with the median strike around 65 million showing only 49% probability. In contrast, the 558-day markets show consistently elevated probabilities in the lower strike range, with strikes from 28.0 to 29.0 million all trading between 89% and 96% YES. The cheapest YES probability appears at the 234-day tenor in the extreme tail (100 billion strike at 2%), but more meaningfully, the 234-day curve shows substantially depressed mid-range probabilities compared to the longer tenor, indicating the market prices near-term resolution as significantly less likely than longer-term outcomes. This inversion suggests the market expects the underlying event to either not occur within 234 days or to resolve at extreme values outside the typical range. The steep repricing between tenors—where probabilities jump dramatically from the 234-day to 558-day buckets—indicates strong conviction that if the event occurs, it will materialize beyond the near-term window. The complete absence of trading volume in the 558-day markets (all showing $0 vol24h) contrasts sharply with the concentrated activity in 234-day ECVOL contracts, yet the probability structure persists, suggesting these represent genuine market consensus rather than illiquid outliers. The market is currently pricing in substantial uncertainty about near-term resolution while maintaining elevated confidence in longer-dated outcomes.