SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate135 markets

Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026

event base · KXPERFORMVS

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 Sep 2026Methodology
24h volume
$1
Constituents
135
Distinct tenors
2
12w – 12w
Top P(YES)
14.0%
Sophia Laforteza

Outcome probabilities

135 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve for KXPERFORMVS exhibits a remarkably flat structure across all observable tenors, with all 133 constituent markets clustering at the 96-day maturity point. YES probabilities are uniformly depressed, ranging from 1.0% to 2.0%, with the vast majority of markets priced at exactly 1.0%. Only two outliers—KXPERFORMVS-26-ADD and KXPERFORMVS-26-CAR—trade marginally higher at 2.0%. This near-perfect flatness at the shortest tenor bucket (96 days) indicates minimal differentiation in market expectations across the event family, and the cheapest YES probabilities are found throughout the entire curve at 1.0%, making tenor-based pricing discrimination essentially nonexistent. The market's current pricing structure conveys extreme skepticism about the event occurring within the 96-day window. The uniform 1-2% probability band suggests participants view the outcome as highly unlikely across all measured timeframes, with no meaningful expectation of acceleration or deceleration in event timing. The absence of a term structure—no steepening, flattening, or inversion—combined with zero 24-hour trading volume across all markets, indicates either a consensus view of very low baseline probability or insufficient liquidity to establish differentiated pricing. The market is essentially saying the event is improbable in the near term, with no signal that conviction strengthens or weakens as the resolution date approaches.

Generated 9/26/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

135 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Sophia Laforteza perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Sophia Laforteza12w14.0%$1
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Sabrina Carpenter12w6.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Addison Rae12w5.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Doja Cat12w4.0%$0
Will Megan Skiendiel perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Megan Skiendiel12w2.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Drake12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Taylor Swift12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Bad Bunny12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: The Weeknd12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Justin Bieber12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Ariana Grande12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Ed Sheeran12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Travis Scott12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Eminem12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Kanye West / Ye12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Rihanna12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Billie Eilish12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Kendrick Lamar12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Post Malone12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: J Balvin12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Future12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Bruno Mars12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: BTS12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Ozuna12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Coldplay12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Nicki Minaj12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Chris Brown12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Dua Lipa12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Lana Del Rey12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Lil Wayne12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: 21 Savage12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Rauw Alejandro12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Anuel AA12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: SZA12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: KAROL G12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Khalid12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Lady Gaga12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Lil Baby12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Maroon 512w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Beyoncé12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Calvin Harris12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Lil Uzi Vert12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: J. Cole12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Sia12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Young Thug12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Linkin Park12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Shawn Mendes12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Sam Smith12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Quavo12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Trippie Redd12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: YoungBoy Never Broke Again12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Tyga12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Sexyy Red12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Charlie Puth12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Luke Combs12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Zach Bryan12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Jason Derulo12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: USHER12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Kodak Black12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Justin Timberlake12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Bebe Rexha12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: BLACKPINK12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Kali Uchis12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Don Toliver12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Pearl Jam12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Big Sean12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Oasis12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Polo G12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Pharrell Williams12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: The Kid LAROI12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Kid Cudi12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Offset12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: 2 Chainz12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Fall Out Boy12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Lewis Capaldi12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Joji12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Roddy Ricch12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Daniel Caesar12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Camilo12w1.0%$0
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: NF12w1.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 135 constituents.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXPERFORMVS on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Sat, 26 Sep 2026 06:23:45 GMT.