event · captured 2026-05-04 · with live markets
Kerala Legislative Assembly election (2026)
UDF refers to the United Democratic Front, a political alliance in Kerala. The trending query combined with news headlines about election results and vote counting indicates this is about the 2026 Kerala state legislative elections. This is a specific political event occurring on a particular date with measurable results.
Why now
Vote counting is underway in Kerala's 2026 legislative assembly elections, with initial trends showing the Congress-led United Democratic Front leading in approximately 45 seats compared to the Left Democratic Front's 25 seats, according to NDTV reporting. This represents a significant shift in Kerala's political landscape as results continue to be tallied across the state's 140 assembly constituencies.
Live prediction markets
2 events of 4
- 01
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner: INC
Polymarket · ticker 0x58c721843501296a0330b5edfbd5b9f5529af7
94¢$12K 24h vol
- 02
How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?: 22+
Polymarket · ticker 0xd2a8b00f3b7fdd31ae5237a82ad646b37b23ae
15¢$299 24h vol
The UDF's early lead aligns with prediction market positioning, where INC-led victory is priced at 94¢ on Polymarket ($11,807 24-hour volume), reflecting confidence in the alliance's consolidation. Meanwhile, IUML seat projections trade at 15¢ for 22+ seats ($299 24-hour volume), indicating market uncertainty around the coalition partner's final allocation.
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- 01
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- 02
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Top news
- 01Read →
Kerala Election Results 2026 Live Updates: UDF Leads In 45 Seats, LDF 25 , BJP 4 In Early Trends
NDTV
- 02Read →
Kerala Election Results 2026 LIVE: Initial trends show Congress-led UDF leading as vote counting progresses
The Hindu
- 03Read →
Seats low, stakes high: Is BJP expanding quietly in Kerala?
The Times of India
What to watch
Final seat tallies will be determined as vote counting progresses, with the UDF's performance on track to exceed previous electoral benchmarks. Monitor whether Congress-led candidates secure a majority beyond 70 seats, how many seats IUML (Indian Union Muslim League) ultimately wins from their projected 22+ allocation, and whether the BJP expands its representation beyond the initial 4-seat trend reported.
Tracked since
2026-05-04
Latest snapshot: 2026-05-04
1 observation from trends_us
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 d ago.